i second Mystichaze, especially as a Count.
your concerns are the same as we, non aligned counts, have .
But here are the arguments i used on myself to make the decision.
1) an average county will have 400 population and between 3 and 4 aristocratic sized settlement of which you take the best, so expect to see 2 to 3 aristocrate show up at most.
it means that Joe Bloggins and his 2 friends have to be able to select a settlement in your county while lots of other aristocrates are looking for a place to settle, if only one of them is replaced by a random they can not get CB without dancing the dance, where you have the same option to secure your seat.
2) Joe Bloggins and his friends have obviously planned to kick you out, but why you ? it arguably be easier for them to go for a NPC count ? the only explanation is they are also friend with other counts and even maybe the duke....
That is why i will avoid player runned kingdom and duchy till land selection and aim for NPC. If a county i like is into player runned duchy i'll check at that time.
3) no one will be able to CB for the first month of expo and probably the second one also or at least efficiently for the second one.
which leave you enough time to dance and secure your seat. No one but the most retarded duke will let go of an efficient and supportive count. I agree, it is the internet and we'll see our lot of toxic people, but duke should be one step above.
4) use your ip to build you a fallback place in a neighboring county and make babies as fast as possible :)
5) as a count you'll choose before aristocrate so you need only one aristocrate friend to feel at ease, not that hard to find in the next 4 to 6 month.